The steepest drug-price drop since 1963

March 1963. John F. Kennedy is in the White House, and prescription drug prices are falling fast. Sixty-three years later, it happened again. In the 12 months ending July 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' prescription drug index fell 3.1%, the steepest annual drop since that spring. The August report showed a 2.9% drop over the year. The September report, released October 14, showed the index falling another 1.2% for the month, and it has not risen in a single month of 2026.

So who gets the credit? Watch a tug-of-war at a county fair. The rope does not move because one person pulls. It moves when enough hands pull the same way at the same time, and this year several hands were on the rope.

Start with the hands President Trump did not put there. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed in 2022, let Medicare negotiate drug prices, and the first ten negotiated prices took effect January 1, 2026, at 38% to 79% off list. Richard Frank of the Brookings Institution told the Washington Post that if he had to bet on the main cause, he would bet on that law. Cheaper generic and biosimilar versions of blockbusters like Humira and Stelara pulled too. Give those hands their due.

Where the President pulled

Now look at the other end of the rope. The law's first prices took effect on this administration's watch, and Medicare negotiated the next 15 drugs during 2025. Then the President went further on the drugs families were buying with cash.

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs listed for more than $1,000 a month. Under his Most Favored Nation deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, TrumpRx now lists the Wegovy pill from $149 a month and Zepbound from $299. Since July 1, Medicare has covered these drugs for weight loss at a $245 net price with a $50 copay, and the White House says more than 500,000 seniors joined in the first two months.

The drug index tracks what pharmacies are paid by patients, insurers and Medicare combined, so a lower Medicare price on a popular drug can move it. The Medicare GLP-1 price started July 1, which means only the two newest monthly readings could show it. The best evidence of its pull is still ahead.

I'm confident the drop is real and the steepest in more than 60 years. I'm less sure how to divide the credit, and so is KFF's Juliette Cubanski, who told the Associated Press that no single policy can claim it.

A tug-of-war is not won by the loudest puller. It is won when the flag crosses the line, and for the first time since Kennedy, the flag is moving toward the patient. If you take a GLP-1 or one of the ten drugs Medicare negotiated, ask your pharmacist what you paid a year ago and what you pay now.