Full ranks, two years running

In late April, with five months still left in the fiscal year, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described a problem the Pentagon has not complained about in a long time. Recruiters, he said, had to "turn people away and push them to the next fiscal year."

Small-town football coaches know the August math. Some years the coach is knocking on doors to find enough kids to fill the field, and the starters play both ways until they are gassed. Other years there are enough players for a junior varsity squad and a few kids waiting for a spot. The second kind of year is safer, because nobody has to play hurt to cover a hole.

Not long ago the military was in a door-knocking year. In fiscal 2023, the Navy missed its goal of 37,700 recruits by more than 7,450.

Two full rosters in a row

Fiscal 2025 turned the page. Every active-duty service met or beat its goal, and the five averaged 103%. The Army signed 62,050 against a goal of 61,000. The Navy signed 44,096 against 40,600, its most since 2002. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the military's recruiting success rate since November 2024 was its highest in more than 15 years.

Then the Army, Navy and Air Force raised their goals, and every service met its own, most of them months early. The Army met its fiscal 2026 goal of 61,500 in May, four months ahead of schedule. The Air Force and Space Force hit their goals in April. The Navy, aiming about 10% higher than the year before, reached 45,000 recruits in early July, three months early. On October 2 the Marine Corps announced it had met its goal too, as it has every year since 1994. The Pentagon has not yet published a combined fiscal 2026 scorecard, but each service has reported its own.

The turnaround did start before President Trump took office. In fiscal 2024 the services signed about 225,000 recruits, 25,000 more than the year before, and nearly every active-duty component made its goal. Analysts credit better recruiting methods, bigger bonuses and new prep courses, much of it started under the previous administration. Those reforms deserve their share of the credit, and so does a job market that shifts from year to year.

But fiscal 2024 was a squeaker. The Navy beat its target by 378 recruits, and the Air Force barely made its own. Since then the biggest targets have gone up, and the services are hitting them with months to spare. The Marines have already signed more than half of the recruits they need for fiscal 2027.

A coach's best problem is too many kids at tryouts. The Pentagon has that problem now, for the second year running. If someone in your house is thinking about serving, talk to a recruiter this fall, because next year's spots are already filling.